August core information summary: the price rise continued, but there was a "noise" in the market

Date：2021-09-10 15:05:00 Views：1622

In August, the epidemic spread in several important producing areas of IC industry, resulting in the shutdown of many original factories and the shortage of downstream supply. Wafer foundry launched a new round of price increases, which is also pushing up the market. At the same time, there were many "noises" in the market in August, which may indicate the reversal of the market. It is necessary to take them into account and adjust the expectations of the future market.

Price adjustment dynamics of the original factory in August

Maxim: the price of the whole line has increased by 6%, which will take effect from August 22

Sheng Qun（Holtek): 10% - 15% price increase since August

New Tang Dynasty（Nuvoton): the price of wafer foundry services has increased by 15%, effective from September 1

Molex: the price of the whole line has increased by 7%, effective from October 1

Ziguang zhanrui: smartphone product line（The price of SOC and AI computing chips) increased by 25%, effective from August 1

Vishay: resistance price increases by 10% - 20%

Guoju（Yageo): it is reported in the industry that the chip resistance price of dealers in Greater China will be reduced by about 10% from September 1

The price rise of the original factory in August involved MCU, mobile phone chips, passive components and other categories, reflecting that the market fundamentals are still in short supply. Guoju reduced the price of chip resistance in contrast with other manufacturers, representing the emergence of "noise" in the market. Whether the fundamentals of subsequent price increases will shake remains to be seen.

The epidemic has become serious,Both IC and passive components are affected

reviewIn August, factors such as the epidemic situation in the producing area and the price rise in the upstream still supported the price rise in case of shortage. In terms of epidemic situation, new cases in Malaysia, the Philippines and Japan have continued to increase recently, affecting the shipment of local IC and passive components.

In August, the production lines of Renesas, Infineon and St plants in Malaysia were forced to shut down, affecting the production of downstream manufacturers. For example, the st Mapo sealing and testing plant was shut down for several days in August, resulting in the loss of chip supply of many types of automotive components of downstream Bosch and facing out of stock.

exceptIC materials and passive component production are also threatened by the epidemic. In late August, Murata's Fukui plant in Japan was shut down due to the epidemic until 31, and some production lines of solar induced power in Malaysia have also been shut down, which is expected to resume on September 10. The shutdown of the two major Japanese manufacturers mainly affects the MLCC market and may lead to the extension of delivery time. In addition, the production line of jiameigong, a Japanese aluminum capacitor leader, in Malaysia has also been shut down for many days and is expected to resume work on September 1.

In mid August, Vishay, the leader of American resistance, announced to increase the quotation by 10% - 20%. The price increase of vsihay has just benefited from the upgrading of control in the Philippines, which can be seen to be directly related to the epidemic. Up to now, the number of new cases in Japan, Malaysia and the Philippines is still rising, and more subsequent production lines will be affected. If more production lines are shut down, it will lead to a wide range of delivery extension and even price increase.

The continuous rise of wafer foundry directly promoted the market

In addition to the epidemic, another driving force driving the market is the rise in the price of wafer foundry.In August, the news of price increase came from many OEM factories. Liandian announced that it would increase its quotation by 10% in November. From January next year, TSMC will increase the price of processes above 16nm by 10% - 20%, and advanced processes below 7Nm by 10%. Samsung wafer foundry also reported that customers have been notified to raise prices by 15% - 20%.

Recently, the intensive price rise of wafer foundry comes from upstream factors. In response to the rise in the prices of raw materials such as metal silicon and methanol, silicon wafer giant Xinyue made a breakthrough this yearThe price of silicone products was raised in March and August, and the cost pressure was passed on to the downstream wafer foundry. In addition, the oversupply caused by the surge in demand is another major factor supporting the market. In particular, the long-term expansion of mature processes is weak, and the shortage of supply is more severe.

In addition to simple price increases, the industry also reported that wafer foundries generally signed contracts with customers2-3 years old. Judging from the production expansion progress of each plant, the large-scale release of new mature process capacity is just the time point in two or three years. At this time, the agent factory signs a long-term contract with the customer, which can ensure that the price can still be locked after the market turns and avoid investment losses.

Market emergence"Noise", or affect demand expectations

From the long-term contract signed by the wafer foundry, it can be seen that the risk of market reversal has been taken into account, and the current demand may exist"Moisture". Since the second half of the year, problems such as repetition, excessive orders and long and short materials have attracted attention, which has become a "noise" under the shortage and rising price market.

Previously, Taiwan media reported that the problem of long and short materials was serious, which led to the decline of shipments of Renbao, a pen power generation factory, in the second quarter, and the hoarding of long materials led to a significant increase in the amount of inventory year-on-year37%。 This news reflects that the problem of long and short materials poses a hidden danger to the operation of the enterprise. If this problem intensifies, it will obviously affect more manufacturing enterprises, affect their production and shipment, and then drag down the overall demand for components.

At the same time, the soaring market also caused dissatisfaction of some downstream enterprises.In August, LED display manufacturer Lampu video reported the upstream IC supplier Fuman electronics, reflecting that under the tense market, upstream and downstream enterprises began to have contradictions. For the allegations, fullman electronics pointed out that it did not establish a direct supply relationship with Lampu video, which mainly took the goods from the agents. This statement implies that the chip market has reached its present level, and market speculation is a big driver.

For a long time, speculation has been common in the chip market, but this round of market is rare in both depth and breadth, which has long attracted the attention of national regulators.In early August, the State Administration of market supervision began to investigate the speculation and bid up prices in the auto chip market. According to the price monitoring and reporting clues, the auto chip distribution enterprises suspected of bid up prices were filed for investigation.

Auto chip is the category with the most serious shortage and price rise, including a large number of productsMCU, MOS, IGBT and other devices. The investigation launched by the State Administration of market supervision will help eliminate the irrational elements in the market, relieve the cost pressure of downstream vehicle manufacturers and parts manufacturers, and improve the overall industrial chain environment.

Overall, the current fundamentals still support the continuation of the market, but some reverse signals have emerged, which need to be paid attention to and adjust the judgment of market expectations in a timely manner.

Other important events in the industry in August

Renesas completes acquisitionDialog, enrich the strength of power IC product line

ADI completed the acquisition of Meixin and narrowed the gap with Ti

Hon Hai acquires wanghong6-inch plant for the development of automotive semiconductors

Wentai technology acquires British Wafer FactoryNWF, expand power product line strength

Lixun, Shunyu and other domestic companies joined for the first timeIPhone supply chain

Samsung Xi'anThe second phase of NAND plant is expected to be completed within this year, and the monthly production capacity will increase to 250000 pieces

The iPhone 13 is scheduled to be released on September 14

Zhengzhou Foxconn has invested heavily in recruiting workers and preparing new goodsiPhone

Intel will contract US Defense chips