The mirror image of the electronics industry behind the high prosperity of the aluminum industry: parallel cost pressure and domestic substitution

In the first half of 2026, the aluminum industry will usher in a long-awaited "golden window period". Multiple listed aluminum companies have achieved doubled growth in performance, with industry production capacity, sales volume, and profits synchronously increasing. Against the backdrop of electrolytic aluminum production capacity reaching a ceiling of 45 million tons, traditional business growth space is limited. Aluminum companies are intensively expanding their production to the high value-added aluminum foil track, especially electronic aluminum foil, electrode foil and other products benefiting from the driving force of AI computing power and new energy demand, becoming a key direction for upstream production capacity layout. However, the profit frenzy and capacity shift of upstream aluminum companies are profoundly affecting the middle and downstream electronic components industry chain through two paths: cost transmission and changes in supply and demand patterns.

The rise in aluminum prices is first transmitted layer by layer along the chain of "aluminum price → aluminum foil/electrode foil → aluminum electrolytic capacitor" to the electronic component link. Electrode foil accounts for up to 60-70% of the cost of aluminum electrolytic capacitors, and the high price of aluminum directly drives up the production cost of electrode foil, which in turn spreads to the field of passive components. Since 2026, Japanese, Taiwanese, and mainland aluminum electrolytic capacitor manufacturers have sent letters to raise prices, with the increase generally ranging from 10% to 15%. The price range has expanded from aluminum electrolytic capacitors to MLCC, film capacitors, supercapacitors, and power devices, forming a wave of price increases across all categories. Passive component leading manufacturers have also followed suit and implemented price increases for their entire product line. Analysis has pointed out that the current passive components are not experiencing a comprehensive recovery, but rather a new round of rare price hikes triggered by aluminum capacitors alone. Against the backdrop of rising chemical costs by about 30-40% and metal raw material prices by about 10%, the trend of rising prices for aluminum foil and aluminum batteries has been established.

The core driving force behind this round of price increases comes from the simultaneous efforts of supply and demand: on the demand side, the construction of AI computing infrastructure is driving the demand for aluminum electrolytic capacitors at an unprecedented speed. The power density of AI servers continues to rise, and the demand for capacitors is more than ten times higher than that of general-purpose servers. The GPU step load of AI servers requires millisecond level intermediate filtering, and the ratio of single machine capacitors is systematically improved. A research report positions capacitors as the "electric RAM" of computing power systems - HBM is a buffer for data, capacitors are a buffer for energy, and the stronger the computing power, the deeper the dependence on electric energy buffering. The shipment volume of AI servers has increased significantly, coupled with the continuous increase in power and voltage, greatly driving the demand growth for aluminum electrolytic capacitors, solid-liquid hybrid aluminum electrolytic capacitors, supercapacitors, and MLPC. On the supply side, the Middle East region accounts for about 9% of global aluminum smelting capacity, and geopolitical conflicts have led to a reversal of global aluminum supply and demand balance from surplus to shortage, resulting in a significant tightening of aluminum foil supply. The cost push and demand pull have formed a joint force, and the price transmission mechanism of the power electronics industry chain has been fully activated.

The pressure of rising aluminum prices has not stopped at the capacitor sector, but continues to spread to a wider range of electronic manufacturing fields. Copper clad laminate leaders have raised prices multiple times this year, with significant cumulative increases. The rising cost of aluminum based copper clad laminates has directly transmitted to PCB manufacturers, and some PCB companies have raised prices for their entire product line multiple times this month, with the highest increase exceeding 45%. The connector industry has also not been spared, with multiple international giants raising their entire product lines by 5% to 15%. From passive components to PCBs, from copper-clad laminates to connectors, the cost pressure caused by the rise in aluminum prices is gradually transmitted downwards along the electronic components industry chain. Compared to upstream mineral enterprises enjoying price dividends, mid to downstream packaging and testing, PCB, and optical module manufacturers are facing the dilemma of continuously rising raw material costs. Driven by the expectation of price increases, agents and end customers have started stocking up in advance, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.

The impact of this high prosperity cycle in the aluminum industry on the electronic component supply chain is multidimensional. In the short term, the tight supply of aluminum foil and the continuous wave of rising capacitor prices pose significant cost pressures and supply uncertainties for mid to downstream enterprises. The supply interruption caused by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is difficult to repair in the short term, and the global pattern of aluminum supply and demand shifting from surplus to shortage means that the center of aluminum prices will remain high in the long term. Although the domestic substitution of high-end electrode foils and other products is accelerating, there is still a short-term production capacity gap. In the long run, the intensive expansion of aluminum foil production by aluminum companies is expected to gradually release new production capacity in the next two to three years, easing the tight supply situation of electronic aluminum foil. At the same time, high copper prices are driving the accelerated application of "replacing copper with aluminum" in fields such as electronic connectors and power electronic modules, opening up new market space for material substitution. For electronic component procurement and supply chain managers, grasping the diversification and stability of supply channels in the high prosperity cycle of the aluminum industry has become a strategic issue that must be faced directly.